Statewide voting intention

Poll average

Public statewide primary-vote polls for the Victorian Legislative Assembly, each with a dated source, plus a transparent weighted average under published rules. This is a summary of recent polling — not a forecast of election day.

Read the bands carefully. Bands reflect sampling uncertainty and disagreement among recent polls, not a forecast of election day. They do not model preference flows, turnout, or late swings. Party, union and advocacy-commissioned polls are excluded from the average by default; rare documented exceptions only.

Tracker average

As of fieldwork ending 25 July 2026 · 5 polls · 45-day window · half-life 21 days · default design effect 1.3

Weighted primary-vote average with 95% intervals
Party	Average	95% band
Labor	26.2%	23.8–28.6
Coalition (L-NP)	26.8%	23.0–30.6
One Nation	25.5%	19.2–31.8
Greens	12.5%	10.4–14.6
Others	9.0%	6.7–11.3

Weights combine effective sample size and exponential time decay. Full formula: poll methodology · machine-readable poll-average.json.

At a glance

Charts use the tracker average above. The two-bloc views group primary vote only — not a two-party preferred result or preference forecast.

Primary vote Left / Right + Others Left / Right (Others split)

Labor 26.2%
Coalition (L-NP) 26.8%
One Nation 25.5%
Greens 12.5%
Others 9.0%

Left bloc Labor + Greens 38.7%
Right bloc Coalition + One Nation 52.3%
Others Others 9.0%

Left bloc = Labor + Greens. Right bloc = Coalition (L-NP) + One Nation. Others stay unallocated (independents and remaining minor parties).

Left bloc Labor + Greens 42.5%
Right bloc Coalition + One Nation 57.5%

How Others is split

Others (9.0%) is allocated in proportion to the two core blocs (not preference flows):

→ Left: +3.8 pp from Others
→ Right: +5.2 pp from Others

Even split sensitivity: Left 43.2% · Right 56.8%.

Primary-vote groupings only. Not a two-party preferred result, seat model, or preference forecast. Others are minor parties and independents combined.

Polls in the ledger

Every row is a sourced record in the repository. Polls marked Excluded fail inclusion rules and are kept for transparency. In* means the poll is in the average under a documented case-by-case exception (hover for the reason).

Fieldwork	Pollster	n	ALP	L-NP	ONP	GRN	OTH	Average
25 July 2026	Newspoll / Pyxis media	1035	28	31	19	13	9	In
13 July 2026	redbridge union	6500	26	26	27	12	9	In*
11 July 2026	resolve media	1000	27	27	22	12	12	In
27 June 2026	redbridge-accent media	5516	26	26	27	13	8	In
11 June 2026	resolve media	1100	26	26	24	12	12	Window
10 June 2026	demosau media	1056	21	30	23	15	11	In
7 June 2026	freshwater media	1034	23	27	25	14	11	Window
23 Apr 2026	roy-morgan self	1707	25.5	24	24.5	13.5	12.5	Window
17 Apr 2026	resolve media	1047	27	29	21	10	13	Window
22 Mar 2026	freshwater media	1062	27.1	29.6	20.4	13.8	9.1	Window
26 Feb 2026	redbridge-accent media	2165	25	28	24	13	10	Window
22 Feb 2026	freshwater media	1030	27.6	26.8	22.6	13.1	9.9	Window
15 Feb 2026	roy-morgan self	2462	25.5	21.5	26.5	13.5	13	Window

Which polls count

Victorian state Assembly voting intention only (not federal).
Published fieldwork dates and sample size (n ≥ 800).
Commissioner is media, the pollster, or neutral academic by default — party, union or advocacy are out unless a documented case-by-case exception applies (In* in the table).
Rolling window (45 days, extendable to 60), one poll per pollster, at least two pollsters before a number is published.

Full rules and maths: docs/POLL-METHODOLOGY.md · downloads: polls.json, polls.csv, poll-average.json.

Candidate coverage remains the core product of this site. Poll records use the same source discipline as candidacies. Ordering of parties elsewhere never uses these figures — see methodology.