{
  "generated": "2026-07-29T03:16:39.969Z",
  "methodology": "docs/POLL-METHODOLOGY.md",
  "caveat": "Bands reflect sampling uncertainty and disagreement among recent polls, not a forecast of election day. They do not model preference flows, turnout, or late swings. Party, union and advocacy-commissioned polls are excluded from the average.",
  "parameters": {
    "design_effect_default": 1.3,
    "half_life_days": 21,
    "window_days_default": 45,
    "window_days_extended": 60,
    "sigma_min_pp": 1,
    "min_polls": 2,
    "min_pollsters": 2
  },
  "as_of": "2026-07-12",
  "window_days_used": 45,
  "status": "ok",
  "status_reason": null,
  "included_poll_ids": [
    "resolve-2026-07-age",
    "redbridge-accent-2026-06-afr",
    "freshwater-2026-06"
  ],
  "excluded_from_average": [
    {
      "id": "redbridge-2026-07-trades-hall",
      "pollster": "redbridge",
      "reason": "Union/advocacy commissioner (Victorian Trades Hall) — hard exclusion under POLL-METHODOLOGY.md"
    }
  ],
  "primaries": {
    "alp": 26,
    "lnp": 26.3,
    "onp": 25.8,
    "grn": 12.9,
    "others": 9
  },
  "intervals": {
    "alp": {
      "estimate": 26,
      "se": 1.27,
      "low": 23.5,
      "high": 28.5,
      "var_sampling_pp2": 0.358,
      "var_between_pp2": 1.256
    },
    "lnp": {
      "estimate": 26.3,
      "se": 1.17,
      "low": 24,
      "high": 28.6,
      "var_sampling_pp2": 0.359,
      "var_between_pp2": 1
    },
    "onp": {
      "estimate": 25.8,
      "se": 2.55,
      "low": 20.8,
      "high": 30.8,
      "var_sampling_pp2": 0.35,
      "var_between_pp2": 6.129
    },
    "grn": {
      "estimate": 12.9,
      "se": 1.1,
      "low": 10.7,
      "high": 15.1,
      "var_sampling_pp2": 0.206,
      "var_between_pp2": 1
    },
    "others": {
      "estimate": 9,
      "se": 2.11,
      "low": 4.9,
      "high": 13.1,
      "var_sampling_pp2": 0.156,
      "var_between_pp2": 4.309
    }
  },
  "weights": [
    {
      "id": "resolve-2026-07-age",
      "pollster": "resolve",
      "fieldwork_end": "2026-07-12",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "n_eff": 769.23,
      "age_days": 0,
      "decay": 1,
      "weight": 769.23
    },
    {
      "id": "redbridge-accent-2026-06-afr",
      "pollster": "redbridge-accent",
      "fieldwork_end": "2026-06-28",
      "sample_size": 5516,
      "n_eff": 4243.08,
      "age_days": 14,
      "decay": 0.63,
      "weight": 2672.97
    },
    {
      "id": "freshwater-2026-06",
      "pollster": "freshwater",
      "fieldwork_end": "2026-06-08",
      "sample_size": 1034,
      "n_eff": 795.38,
      "age_days": 34,
      "decay": 0.3256,
      "weight": 258.94
    }
  ]
}