{
  "generated": "2026-07-29T03:16:39.970Z",
  "caveat": "Bands reflect sampling uncertainty and disagreement among recent polls, not a forecast of election day. They do not model preference flows, turnout, or late swings. Party, union and advocacy-commissioned polls are excluded from the average.",
  "methodology": "docs/POLL-METHODOLOGY.md",
  "polls": [
    {
      "id": "freshwater-2026-06",
      "pollster": "freshwater",
      "commissioner": "herald-sun",
      "commissioner_type": "media",
      "fieldwork_start": "2026-06-05",
      "fieldwork_end": "2026-06-08",
      "sample_size": 1034,
      "design_effect": null,
      "mode": "online",
      "population": "victorian-electors",
      "question_notes": "Victorian state voting intention.",
      "primaries": {
        "alp": 23,
        "lnp": 27,
        "onp": 25,
        "grn": 14,
        "others": 11
      },
      "undecided_handling": "allocated",
      "eligible_for_average": true,
      "exclusion_reason": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/06/08/freshwater-strategy-labor-23-coalition-27-one-nation-25-in-victoria/",
          "publisher": "The Poll Bludger",
          "title": "Freshwater Strategy: Labor 23, Coalition 27, One Nation 25 in Victoria",
          "published": "2026-06-08",
          "accessed": "2026-07-29"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "redbridge-2026-07-trades-hall",
      "pollster": "redbridge",
      "commissioner": "victorian-trades-hall",
      "commissioner_type": "union",
      "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-01",
      "fieldwork_end": "2026-07-14",
      "sample_size": 6500,
      "design_effect": null,
      "mode": "online",
      "population": "victorian-electors",
      "question_notes": "Large-sample poll reported as commissioned for Victorian Trades Hall. Recorded for transparency; excluded from the tracker average.",
      "primaries": {
        "alp": 26,
        "lnp": 26,
        "onp": 27,
        "grn": 12,
        "others": 9
      },
      "undecided_handling": "allocated",
      "eligible_for_average": false,
      "exclusion_reason": "Union/advocacy commissioner (Victorian Trades Hall) — hard exclusion under POLL-METHODOLOGY.md",
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/07/14/resolve-strategic-labor-27-coalition-27-one-nation-22-in-victoria/",
          "publisher": "The Poll Bludger",
          "title": "Resolve Strategic: Labor 27, Coalition 27, One Nation 22 in Victoria (also reports Trades Hall RedBridge)",
          "published": "2026-07-14",
          "accessed": "2026-07-29"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://theconversation.com/victorian-redbridge-poll-has-one-nation-just-ahead-of-labor-and-the-coalition-286753",
          "publisher": "The Conversation",
          "title": "Victorian Redbridge poll has One Nation just ahead of Labor and the Coalition",
          "published": "2026-07-06",
          "accessed": "2026-07-29"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "redbridge-accent-2026-06-afr",
      "pollster": "redbridge-accent",
      "commissioner": "australian-financial-review",
      "commissioner_type": "media",
      "fieldwork_start": "2026-06-17",
      "fieldwork_end": "2026-06-28",
      "sample_size": 5516,
      "design_effect": null,
      "mode": "online",
      "population": "victorian-electors",
      "question_notes": "Victorian state voting intention for the Australian Financial Review.",
      "primaries": {
        "alp": 26,
        "lnp": 26,
        "onp": 27,
        "grn": 13,
        "others": 8
      },
      "undecided_handling": "allocated",
      "eligible_for_average": true,
      "exclusion_reason": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.afr.com/politics/one-nation-overtakes-labor-liberals-in-victoria-allan-s-rating-dives-20260701-p60bnh",
          "publisher": "Australian Financial Review",
          "title": "One Nation overtakes Labor, Liberals in Victoria as Allan's rating dives",
          "published": "2026-07-01",
          "accessed": "2026-07-29"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://theconversation.com/victorian-redbridge-poll-has-one-nation-just-ahead-of-labor-and-the-coalition-286753",
          "publisher": "The Conversation",
          "title": "Victorian Redbridge poll has One Nation just ahead of Labor and the Coalition",
          "published": "2026-07-06",
          "accessed": "2026-07-29"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "resolve-2026-07-age",
      "pollster": "resolve",
      "commissioner": "the-age",
      "commissioner_type": "media",
      "fieldwork_start": "2026-07-08",
      "fieldwork_end": "2026-07-12",
      "sample_size": 1000,
      "design_effect": null,
      "mode": "online",
      "population": "victorian-electors",
      "question_notes": "Victorian state voting intention; sample padded from Resolve national fieldwork for The Age.",
      "primaries": {
        "alp": 27,
        "lnp": 27,
        "onp": 22,
        "grn": 12,
        "others": 12
      },
      "undecided_handling": "allocated",
      "eligible_for_average": true,
      "exclusion_reason": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/even-with-one-nation-support-dropping-state-labor-still-has-reason-to-worry-ahead-of-november-20260713-p60etg.html",
          "publisher": "The Age",
          "title": "Even with One Nation support dropping, state Labor still has reason to worry ahead of November",
          "published": "2026-07-13",
          "accessed": "2026-07-29"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.pollbludger.net/2026/07/14/resolve-strategic-labor-27-coalition-27-one-nation-22-in-victoria/",
          "publisher": "The Poll Bludger",
          "title": "Resolve Strategic: Labor 27, Coalition 27, One Nation 22 in Victoria",
          "published": "2026-07-14",
          "accessed": "2026-07-29"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "roy-morgan-2026-02",
      "pollster": "roy-morgan",
      "commissioner": "self",
      "commissioner_type": "self",
      "fieldwork_start": "2026-02-13",
      "fieldwork_end": "2026-02-16",
      "sample_size": 2462,
      "design_effect": null,
      "mode": "sms",
      "population": "victorian-electors",
      "question_notes": "Special SMS Roy Morgan survey of Victorian state voting intention.",
      "primaries": {
        "alp": 25.5,
        "lnp": 21.5,
        "onp": 26.5,
        "grn": 13.5,
        "others": 13
      },
      "undecided_handling": "allocated",
      "eligible_for_average": true,
      "exclusion_reason": null,
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10133-victorian-state-voting-intention-february-2026",
          "publisher": "Roy Morgan Research",
          "title": "Victorian State Voting Intention: One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of ALP (25.5%) and L-NP Coalition (21.5%) on primary vote",
          "published": "2026-02-19",
          "accessed": "2026-07-29"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}